Micron (MU): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Sep 23, 2025
On its Sep 23, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Micron said 6 of the 10 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
10 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 10 of 10- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC / Personal Computer | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Idaho | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 76%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 59%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cloud | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 24%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| AI Application | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Expansion | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 61%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| GPU | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 69%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Supply Chain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
12 matches for “Shipment”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…are driving an improved PC demand outlook. We now expect PC unit shipments to grow at a mid-single-digit percentage level in calendar 2025 versus our…
…SSD revenue in the quarter and in fiscal year 2025. Smartphone unit shipment expectations remain unchanged at a low single-digit percentage range in calendar 2025.…
…and represented 79% of total revenue. Sequentially, DRAM revenue increased 27%. Bit shipments increased in the low teens percent driven by strong demand across all…
…20% of Micron's total revenue. Sequentially, NAND revenue increased 5%. NAND bit shipments declined in the mid-single-digit percentage range, and prices increased in the high…
…company revenue. CMB revenues were up 34% sequentially, driven by robust bit shipment growth. HBM revenues reached a new quarterly record. CMBU gross margins were…
Where the listed words were said
…and expected to grow. Refresh and inference workload demand drivers, and then PC, smartphone, auto all have increased content growth, and that's becoming clear. And…
…of a key construction milestone for our new high-volume manufacturing fab in Idaho, with the first wafer output expected to begin in 2027. We began…
…growth in the quarter and reached record revenue. In close collaboration with NVIDIA, Micron has pioneered the adoption of LPDRAM for servers, and since NVIDIA's…
…not just in training, but in finance as well. And as the AI applications broaden, innovations increase, you know, greater different architectures, you know, all…
…So, yeah, we're focused on our execution. And, again, sequentially here, expect price mix and strong execution to drive that 580 basis point margin expansion.
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