Matt Murphy
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 13 word markets on Matt Murphy’s appearances since 2026, on 13 different words.
History Wall
1–13 of 13, most settled first| Word | Jun 1latest | Last 1 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWS / Amazon | 3 times: AWS / Amazon, Jun 1 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Data Center | 40 times: Data Center, Jun 1 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Hyperscaler | 2 times: Hyperscaler, Jun 1 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Microsoft | 1 time: Microsoft, Jun 1 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Nvidia | 11 times: Nvidia, Jun 1 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Silicon | 12 times: Silicon, Jun 1 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Taiwan | 12 times: Taiwan, Jun 1 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Anthropic / Claude | 0 times: Anthropic / Claude, Jun 1 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | 0 times: OpenAI / ChatGPT, Jun 1 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China / Chinese | 0 times: China / Chinese, Jun 1 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gemini | 0 times: Gemini, Jun 1 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Inference | 2 times: Inference, Jun 1 keynote, counts as said (our count 2 · the market settled no) | 1/1100% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | 0 times: Robot / Robotic / Robotics, Jun 1 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 1Our transcript counts matched how 12 of 13 settled words resolved (92.3%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will Matt Murphy say during the Marvell Technology Keynote? | Captions · machine-attributed | 14 | 7 yes · 7 no | 12/13 (92%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Matt Murphy: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/matt-murphy (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/matt-murphy · words: /api/v1/history?entity=matt-murphy · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP