Will Matt Murphy say “Inference”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Matt Murphy did not say “Inference” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 1, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jun 1, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Matt Murphy
Inference
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
It introduced the idea of extremely fast inference for MOE models that are very large, mixture of expert models that are extremely large. And so…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | Inference |  Kalshi | No | 2 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often does Matt Murphy say “Inference”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Matt Murphy did not say “Inference” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Matt Murphy says “Inference” next time?
- 22%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Matt Murphy: ‘Inference’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/matt-murphy/words/inference (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=matt-murphy&word=inference · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=matt-murphy&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP