Will Matt Murphy say “Taiwan”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Matt Murphy said “Taiwan” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 1, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jun 1, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Matt Murphy
Taiwan
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
12 counted.
…Matt Murphy. Good morning. It’s great to be here to kick off day one at Computex. And it’s great to be back here in Taiwan.
…world. I’ve had the opportunity to come back many times and see Taiwan continue to grow in importance as one of the world’s leading technology…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | Taiwan |  Kalshi | Yes | 12 |
Questions
- How often does Matt Murphy say “Taiwan”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Matt Murphy said “Taiwan” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Matt Murphy says “Taiwan” next time?
- 73%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Matt Murphy: ‘Taiwan’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/matt-murphy/words/taiwan (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=matt-murphy&word=taiwan · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=matt-murphy&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP