George W. Bush: Speech, Nov 21, 2025
Kalshi What will George W. Bush say during Dick Cheney's funeral?
Markets
12 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wyoming | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Darth Vader | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Foreign Policy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Middle East | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Military | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terror / Terrorist / Terrorism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iraq | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBUSHMENTION-25NOV21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP