David Sacks: Press conference, Feb 4, 2025

Tue, Feb 4Press conferenceHistory onlyDavid Sacks

Updated

Markets

6 words · 1 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Bitcoin Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Ethereum No–new new word, no probability yet–
Memecoin No–new new word, no probability yet–
Pumpfun/Pump.fun No–new new word, no probability yet–
Solana No–new new word, no probability yet–
Trump Coin/Official Trump No–new new word, no probability yet–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

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