What is the probability “Volatile” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?

68%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Volatile” be said at the next FOMC press conference?

Name: FOMC press conference: “Volatile” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Volatile” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 18, 2025 (100%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 68% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5 of them.

68%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 05:43 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

FOMC press conference

Volatile

Probability: 68% · n=2
Settled: 2/2 (100%)
Last 8 press conferences: said in 5 of 5 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his June press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his April press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his March press conference? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).

Jerome PowellspeakerpreparedIn transcript

…percent over the 12 months ending in February and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent. These elevated…

What will Powell say during his January press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Dec 2025 press conference? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His October Press Conference? · not listed

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What will be said say during FED board meeting on Oct 24? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Sep 2025 press conference? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Mar 18, 2026	Volatile	Polymarket	Yes	1
Jun 18, 2025	Volatile	Polymarket	Yes	1

Questions

How often is “Volatile” said at the FOMC press conference?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “Volatile” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 18, 2025 (100%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
What is the probability “Volatile” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?: 68%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Volatile’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/volatile (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=volatile · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP