What is the probability “Variable” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?

59%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Variable” be said at the next FOMC press conference?

Name: FOMC press conference: “Variable” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Variable” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 29, 2025.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 17:39 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

FOMC press conference

Variable

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 press conferences: said in 3 of 5 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his June press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his April press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his March press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his January press conference? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Dec 2025 press conference? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His October Press Conference? · said 1 time (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).

Jerome PowellspeakerqaIn transcript

…lot of it is also different risk aversions to the two different variables, which is common through, through all federal reserves, they’re—people just have different…

What will be said say during FED board meeting on Oct 24? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Sep 2025 press conference? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Oct 29, 2025	Variable	Polymarket	Yes	1

Questions

How often is “Variable” said at the FOMC press conference?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “Variable” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 29, 2025.
What is the probability “Variable” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?: 59%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Variable’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/variable (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=variable · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP