Will “Uncertainty” be said 5+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Uncertainty” was not said 5+ times at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, role: fed chair) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Uncertainty (5+ Times)
- Probability
- 21% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…we’re going to get. If there is a very high level of uncertainty, then that could be an argument in favor of caution about moving.…
…this is the best assessment that we can make and—but because there’s uncertainty around inflation and the path ahead for inflation, that’s why we’re going—that’s…
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…June. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty, and they are not a Committee plan or decision. Policy is not…
So there’s great uncertainty around that. I think my view—which is also a bit of a guess, but widely shared I think—is that you are…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | Uncertainty (5+ Times) |  Kalshi | No | 2 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Uncertainty (5+ Times) | Kalshi | No | 2 |
Questions
- How often is “Uncertainty (5+ Times)” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Uncertainty” was not said 5+ times at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 17, 2025.
- What is the probability “Uncertainty (5+ Times)” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Uncertainty (5+ Times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/uncertainty-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=uncertainty%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP