Will “Uncertainty” be said 3+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Uncertainty” was not said 3+ times at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Dec 10, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, role: fed chair) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Uncertainty (3+ times)
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…short while ago, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated—owing, in part, to geopolitical developments—domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity…
…of forecasting, a choice we consider especially prudent at these uncertain times. Uncertainty, however, does not mean a lack of clarity. For some households, businesses,…
…banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity…
…Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook, and we will remain attentive to risks to…
…December. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty, and they are not a Committee plan or decision. Monetary policy is…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025 | Uncertainty (3+ times) |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “Uncertainty (3+ times)” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Uncertainty” was not said 3+ times at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Dec 10, 2025.
- What is the probability “Uncertainty (3+ times)” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 26%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Uncertainty (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/uncertainty-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=uncertainty%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP