Will “Ukraine” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ukraine” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 7, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Ukraine
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…at a minimum, we’ve—we had the pandemic, we had the invasion of Ukraine, we had tariffs, and now we have Iran and the oil, you…
…broad tendency or anything, I don’t think. And the oil shock under—with Ukraine was also a consequence of military action. So I don’t know that—I…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2025 | Ukraine |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Ukraine” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ukraine” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 7, 2025.
- What is the probability “Ukraine” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Ukraine’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/ukraine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=ukraine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP