Will “Tightening” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tightening” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 19, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Tightening
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…thing. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we’ve seen a material tightening, not just in nominal rates, but in real rates, too, and we’re…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…you look at two-year yields, they’re really suggesting that markets think more tightening is needed. Would that be your read on what the two-year yield…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…no implications for—the stance of monetary policy. In light of the continued tightening in money market interest rates relative to our administered rates, and other…
…nonreserve liabilities grow. So this happened, some of it—some things have been happening for some time now, showing a gradual tightening in money market conditions.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2025 | Tightening |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Tightening” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tightening” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 19, 2025.
- What is the probability “Tightening” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Tightening’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/tightening (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=tightening · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP