Will “Tariff” be said 13+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said 13+ times at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 69% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (13+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Tariff 13+ times
- Probability
- 69% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 3 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
15 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 13 in Q&A); 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
…core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent. These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs.
…help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2 percent once the effects of tariff increases have passed through.
Counts: named speaker only
18 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 15 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…year, as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects of tariffs. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing for services. Near-term measures of…
A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short lived—effectively a one-time shift in the price level. Our…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | Tariff 13+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 15 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Tariff 13+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 18 |
Questions
- How often is “Tariff 13+ times” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said 13+ times at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026.
- What is the probability “Tariff 13+ times” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 69%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Tariff 13+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/tariff-13plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=tariff%20%2813%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP