Will “Survey” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Survey” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 30, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 6.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Survey
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…It isn’t to the exclusion of data sources and opinions and other surveys, but if you’re hearing from me, we wanted to make sure we’re…
Fourth, the task force on productivity and jobs. It’ll survey the pace, the reach, the economic impact of new general-purpose technologies, including AI, and explore…
…the overwhelming majority of the things we look to, including markets, including surveys of, you know, the public and also of forecasters, they’ve all been…
…have declined from last year’s peaks, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent…
…continuing for services. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have declined from their peaks earlier in the year, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2025 | Survey |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often is “Survey” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Survey” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 30, 2025.
- What is the probability “Survey” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Survey’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/survey (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=survey · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP