Will “Summer” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Summer” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 18, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Summer
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that inflation is too high and has been for too long. This summer’s inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…consider alternatives; and, ultimately, propose next steps for policymaker consideration. Since last summer, my colleagues discussed possible improvements in the form and function of Fed…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…was 4.4 percent in February and has changed little since late last summer. Job gains have remained low. A good part of the slowing in…
Okay. Thanks. BIS wrote a paper last summer which concluded that global investors were hedging their dollar exposures, in ways that previously they hadn’t, because…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…was really solid at that point. So what happened is, over last summer—summer of ’24—inflation came down and the labor market began to show real…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2025 | Summer |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
Questions
- How often is “Summer” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Summer” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 18, 2025.
- What is the probability “Summer” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Summer’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/summer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=summer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP