Will “Successor” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Successor” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Successor
- Probability
- 45% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 1 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
So if my successor is not confirmed by the end of my term as Chair, I would serve as Chair pro tem until he is…
…rest of the year and beyond? And does that even handicap your successor in any way? Well, just in terms of having a whole Committee…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Successor” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Successor” was said at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Successor” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Successor’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/successor (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=successor · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP