Will “Stock Market” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Stock Market” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 28, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Stock Market
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 1 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the elevated inflation, GDP seems to be going pretty good and the stock market seems to be soaring, do you look around this economy and…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…consumption and growth coming in the form of wealth effects with the stock market down, in the form of gas prices diverting spending from other…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…are really driving spending right now. They’re backed by home equity and stock market wealth. But lowerincome consumers are really struggling with the accumulation of…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…to consume declines quite dramatically as you reach—as you reach levels of stock market wealth. So the stock market—it would affect spending if the stock…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | Stock Market |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Stock Market” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Stock Market” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 28, 2026.
- What is the probability “Stock Market” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Stock Market’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/stock-market (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=stock%20market · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP