Will “Speculate / Speculation” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Speculate / Speculation” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 18, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Speculate / Speculation
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A).
…how do consumers react and that kind of thing. Really, we—I wouldn’t speculate in any way, and there’s really not a lot we can do…
…and of course people will feel that. But I don’t want to speculate about what that might mean because, honestly, that would sound like I…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Speculate / Speculation |  Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often is “Speculate / Speculation” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Speculate / Speculation” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Speculate / Speculation” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Speculate / Speculation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/speculate-or-speculation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=speculate%20%2F%20speculation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP