Will “Simulation” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Simulation” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 22% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Simulation
- Probability
- 22% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Simulation |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Simulation | Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Simulation” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Simulation” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Simulation” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 22%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Simulation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/simulation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=simulation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP