Will “Signal” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Signal” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 18, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Signal
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we doing on employment? We’re trying not to interfere with that market signal. That’s part of the reason why we’ve been somewhat spare on our…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…in a good place. If we need to hike, we will certainly signal that, and we will—and we will certainly do it. And if we…
…service and business service as well, so—and that they take as a signal that inflation expectations may be less sticky than in the past. I’m…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…indicate that the Fed is now on hold until there’s some clearer signal from inflation or jobs or the evolution of the economy along the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…the state-level data on initial claims, which are sending sort of a signal of more of the same. We also get job openings, and we’ll…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Signal |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Signal” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Signal” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Signal” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Signal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/signal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=signal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP