Will “SEP” be said 4+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “SEP” was not said 4+ times at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 28, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (4+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
SEP 4+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
Yeah, no, I would say, if you look at the SEP from December, you— most people had additional normalization. But at the same time, we’ve…
Hi, Chair Powell. Neil Irwin with Axios. Obviously no SEP in this meeting, but in light of the slight firming up of the language around…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | SEP 4+ times |  Polymarket | No | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “SEP 4+ times” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “SEP” was not said 4+ times at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 28, 2026.
- What is the probability “SEP 4+ times” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘SEP 4+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/sep-4plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=sep%20%284%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP