Will “Replace / Replaces / Replaced / Replacement” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Replace / Replaces / Replaced / Replacement” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 18% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Replace / Replaces / Replaced / Replacement
- Probability
- 18% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…extent of the tariff shock will be as the Administration moves to replace some of the tariffs that were overturned. So I suppose I’m curious,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…have induced people to do more automation and do more things with computers to replace people. And that raises productivity, you know, output per hour.
So it’s a lot of things. And it doesn’t replace government data, but you know all of these, it’s—I’ll just mention some of the many,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Replace / Replaces / Replaced / Replacement |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Replace / Replaces / Replaced / Replacement | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Replace / Replaces / Replaced / Replacement” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Replace / Replaces / Replaced / Replacement” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Replace / Replaces / Replaced / Replacement” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 18%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Replace / Replaces / Replaced / Replacement’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/replace-or-replaced-or-replacement (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=replace%20%2F%20replaced%20%2F%20replacement · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP