Will “Refund” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Refund” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 18, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Refund
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…growth. You’ve also got the fiscal tailwinds, you’ve talked about big tax refunds coming, potential tariff dividend. How could you cut rates and not spur…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Refund |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Refund” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Refund” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Refund” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Refund’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/refund (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=refund · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP