Will “Possibility” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Possibility” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 29, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Possibility
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 4 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…into things. We may get—the data may come back. But there’s a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving. I’m…
…rates need to fall from here? Would you then be a bit more concerned about underlying inflation and the possibility of second-round effects from tariffs?
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | Possibility |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often is “Possibility” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Possibility” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 29, 2025.
- What is the probability “Possibility” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Possibility’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/possibility (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=possibility · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP