Will “Percent” be said 25+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Percent” was said 25+ times at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 10, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (25+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Percent 25+ times
- Probability
- 45% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
16 counted (9 in prepared remarks, 7 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…previous three meetings, we see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals.
…stabilizing after a period of gradual softening. The unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in December and has changed little in recent months. Job gains have…
Counts: named speaker only
27 counted (16 in prepared remarks, 11 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 1.7 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year, somewhat stronger than projected in…
…release, showed that the unemployment rate continued to edge up, reaching 4.4 percent, and that job gains had slowed significantly since earlier in the year.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | Percent 25+ times |  Polymarket | No | 16 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Percent 25+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 27 |
Questions
- How often is “Percent 25+ times” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Percent” was said 25+ times at the FOMC press conference on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 10, 2025.
- What is the probability “Percent 25+ times” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Percent 25+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/percent-25plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=percent%20%2825%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP