Will “North Star” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “North Star” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jul 29, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
North Star
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).
…It was a real family fight. My view, which you’ve long heard, is that’s the better way to get policy right. That’s our North Star.
…function. Surprise is not what we’re solving for. We have a clear North Star. What we’re solving for is how to make the best decisions.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | North Star |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often is “North Star” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “North Star” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jul 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “North Star” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘North Star’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/north-star (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=north%20star · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP