Will “Middle East” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Middle East” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 29, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 64¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Middle East
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…progress toward our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic…
…in global oil prices that has resulted from the conflict in the Middle East. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Middle East |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
Questions
- How often is “Middle East” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Middle East” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Middle East” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 63%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Middle East’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/middle-east (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=middle%20east · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP