Will “Judge” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Judge” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 18, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Judge
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 4 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…The unemployment rate holds steady at about 4.1 percent. The median participant judges that the appropriate federal funds rate to be 4.1 percent at the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Treasuries—for the foreign exchange value of the dollar. And then trying to judge for ourselves—what does that mean about our remit? How are we doing…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…a bit shorter, a bit simpler—and it dispenses with some older language. That statement just gives you the facts, as best we can judge it.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…individual assessments of an appropriate path of the federal funds rate under what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario for the economy.
…me pull it out, was, was simply, it’s—it used to say that “judges the downside risks to employment rose in recent months.” So we saw…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2025 | Judge |  Polymarket | No | 1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often is “Judge” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Judge” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 18, 2025.
- What is the probability “Judge” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Judge’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/judge (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=judge · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP