Will “Independence” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Independence” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 20% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 68¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Independence
- Probability
- 20% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the President. And I’m not a Wall Street newsletter. Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane. Independence is…
Hi. Victoria Guida with Politico. During your tenure, Fed independence has come under pressure in a lot of different ways. And I was just wondering,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
How does the Fed’s independence play into the ability to address affordability?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
So, really, the point of independence is not to protect policymakers or anything like that. It just is that every advanced-economy democracy in the world…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Independence |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Independence | Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Independence” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Independence” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 17, 2026.
- What is the probability “Independence” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 20%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Independence’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/independence (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=independence · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP