Will “I Don't Know” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “I Don't Know” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 17, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
I Don't Know
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…wages at the moment, how would you explain it to them? I don’t know if “task force” might be the answer there, but how would…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…won’t be standing here at this podium to answer your questions. I don’t know. As I mentioned, that’s all I can really say is that…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…shock under—with Ukraine was also a consequence of military action. So I don’t know that—I don’t know that the world has changed in a way…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…more, which is why the unemployment rate has gone up. So I don’t know whether that’s a coincidence or not, but that’s what’s happened with…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Thanks. I don’t know if that means I get three questions, but—
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | I Don't Know |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “I Don't Know” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “I Don't Know” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 17, 2026.
- What is the probability “I Don't Know” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘I Don't Know’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/i-dont-know (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=i%20don%27t%20know · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP