Will “Groupthink / Group think” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Groupthink / Group think” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 20% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Groupthink / Group think
- Probability
- 20% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Groupthink / Group think |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Groupthink / Group Think | Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Groupthink / Group think” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Groupthink / Group think” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 17, 2026.
- What is the probability “Groupthink / Group think” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 20%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Groupthink / Group think’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/group-think-or-groupthink (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=group%20think%20%2F%20groupthink · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP