Will “Fraud” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Fraud” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 17, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 0.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Fraud
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2025 | Fraud |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Fraud” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Fraud” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 17, 2025.
- What is the probability “Fraud” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP