Will “Forecast” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Forecast” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 30, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 8.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Forecast
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…here. You heard from other people in the dots effectively, what their forecasts are. I’m not going to prejudge any future decisions we make. You…
…everywhere be the center of attention. I understand the desire for rolling forecasts and commentary from this Committee. But for our part, we need to…
…things. What I heard around the table was, as they submitted their modal forecasts, their modal forecasts—to be clear—weren’t, this was more likely than not.
…all along would happen. That’s the kind of critical part of the forecast. We need to really see that. With, with energy, it’s so hard…
…next year, unchanged from December. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty, and they are not a Committee plan or…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2025 | Forecast |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Forecast” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Forecast” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 30, 2025.
- What is the probability “Forecast” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Forecast’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/forecast (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=forecast · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP