Will “Disinflation” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Disinflation” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 18, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 4.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Disinflation
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…borderline between restrictive and not. Remember that a big part of the disinflation we’re looking for is just the runoff of—when tariffs are put into…
In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing in the services sector. Nearterm measures of inflation expectations have declined from last year’s peaks, as reflected in…
…for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects of tariffs. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing for services. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have…
…in the year, as inflation for goods has picked up. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing for services. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2025 | Disinflation |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Disinflation” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Disinflation” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 18, 2025.
- What is the probability “Disinflation” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Disinflation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/disinflation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=disinflation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP