Will “Depression / Recession” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Depression / Recession” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 17, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Depression / Recession
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…and ’23, and close to 100 percent of economists called for a recession, which didn’t happen. In fact, 2023 was a really strong year. So…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Depression / Recession |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Depression / Recession” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Depression / Recession” was not said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 17, 2026.
- What is the probability “Depression / Recession” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Depression / Recession’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/depression-or-recession (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=depression%20%2F%20recession · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP