Will “Rate / Cut” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Rate / Cut” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 17, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Rate / Cut
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 3 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
7 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A); 7 by speakers the rule does not count.
…the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the fed funds rate at 3½ to 3¾ percent, in support of the Fed’s dual mandate.…
…strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Rate / Cut |  Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
Questions
- How often is “Rate / Cut” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Rate / Cut” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 17, 2026.
- What is the probability “Rate / Cut” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Rate / Cut’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/cut-or-rate (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=cut%20%2F%20rate · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP