Will “Cut” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Cut” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 30, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 5.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Cut
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…consumers? And I have to ask, what is your message here to President Trump, who has repeatedly called to cut interest rates, not raise them?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…fairly hawkish when you listen to—in general, when you listen to what they’re saying. Was there any discussion of a rate cut going forward today?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…more neutral stance so that the hike is as likely as a cut—that number has increased over the intermeeting period. And it’s easy to see…
…was actually some movement toward—a meaningful amount of movement toward, toward fewer cuts by people. So four or five people went from two to one,…
…about this was that after this meeting, after the three recent rate cuts, we’re well positioned to address the risks that we face on both…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2025 | Cut |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often is “Cut” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Cut” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 30, 2025.
- What is the probability “Cut” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Cut’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/cut (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=cut · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP