Will “Confidence” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Confidence” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 30, 2025.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Confidence
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…transmission mechanisms. The interest rates work through lending channels and credit channels—maybe confidence channels and foreign exchange. The balance sheet probably works through some other…
…growth forecast by a tenth, and I think that’s probably to do with just growing confidence in productivity. But so—sorry, and your second question was?
…are very consistent with 2 percent inflation over time. So expectations are—have been solid, and they reflect confidence in the return to 2 percent inflation.
…no longer describes the unemployment rate as remaining low. What gives you confidence it won’t continue rising in 2026, especially when housing and other rate-sensitive…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2025 | Confidence |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Confidence” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Confidence” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 30, 2025.
- What is the probability “Confidence” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Confidence’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/confidence (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=confidence · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP