Will “Chair” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Chair” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 17, 2026.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Chair
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Thank you. Chair Warsh, thank you for doing this. I’m Richard Escobedo with CBS. Let me navigate over to my questions. You know, a ¼…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Steve Liesman, CNBC. Mr. Chair—Mr. Chairman, thank you for taking my question. You had said in the—before you became Chairman that you thought productivity was…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…decisions on a meeting-bymeeting basis. This is my last press conference as Chair, and I will close with a few thoughts. First, I want to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Mr. Chair, in the past, the staff has suggested that higher oil prices—they have a hit to consumption, which Howard was talking about, but that’s…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal. Chair Powell, you’ve generally avoided engaging with political controversies directly, and the video statement on January 11 was a…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Chair |  Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often is “Chair” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Chair” was said at the FOMC press conference on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 17, 2026.
- What is the probability “Chair” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Chair’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/chair (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=chair · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP