Ariana Grande
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 36 word markets on Ariana Grande’s appearances since 2025, on 28 different words.
History Wall
1–29 of 29, most settled first| Word | Dec 19 ’25episode | Dec 20episode | Dec 21latest | Last 3 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cynthia / Erivo | Settled no: Cynthia / Erivo, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Cynthia / Erivo, Dec 20 episode | Settled no: Cynthia / Erivo, Dec 21 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | – |
| Witch | Settled no: Witch, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Witch, Dec 20 episode | Settled no: Witch, Dec 21 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | – |
| Wicked | Settled yes: Wicked, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Wicked, Dec 20 episode | Settled yes: Wicked, Dec 21 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | – |
| Grammy | Settled no: Grammy, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Grammy, Dec 20 episode | Settled no: Grammy, Dec 21 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | – |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Trump, Dec 20 episode | Settled no: Trump, Dec 21 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | – |
| Christmas | Not listed: Christmas, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Christmas, Dec 20 episode | Settled yes: Christmas, Dec 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Merry Christmas | Not listed: Merry Christmas, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Merry Christmas, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Merry Christmas, Dec 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| SNL / Saturday Night Live | Settled yes: SNL / Saturday Night Live, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: SNL / Saturday Night Live, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: SNL / Saturday Night Live, Dec 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Anorexia | Not listed: Anorexia, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Anorexia, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Anorexia, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Ozempic / Anorexia | Not listed: Ozempic / Anorexia, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Ozempic / Anorexia, Dec 20 episode | Settled no: Ozempic / Anorexia, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Frankie / Brother | Settled no: Frankie / Brother, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Frankie / Brother, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Frankie / Brother, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Sabrina / Carpenter | Not listed: Sabrina / Carpenter, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Sabrina / Carpenter, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Sabrina / Carpenter, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Pete / Davidson | Not listed: Pete / Davidson, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Pete / Davidson, Dec 20 episode | Settled no: Pete / Davidson, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Disorder | Not listed: Disorder, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Disorder, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Disorder, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Divorce | Not listed: Divorce, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Divorce, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Divorce, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Duet | Settled no: Duet, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Duet, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Duet, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Ethan / Slater | Not listed: Ethan / Slater, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Ethan / Slater, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Ethan / Slater, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Gravity | Not listed: Gravity, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Gravity, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Gravity, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Green | Not listed: Green, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Green, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Green, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Settled no: Instagram, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Instagram, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Instagram, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – | |
| Megyn Kelly | Settled no: Megyn Kelly, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Megyn Kelly, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Megyn Kelly, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Music | Not listed: Music, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Music, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Music, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| New York City | Not listed: New York City, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: New York City, Dec 20 episode | Settled no: New York City, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Ozempic | Settled no: Ozempic, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Ozempic, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Ozempic, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Spotify | Settled no: Spotify, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Spotify, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Spotify, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Taylor / Swift | Not listed: Taylor / Swift, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Taylor / Swift, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Taylor / Swift, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Taylor Swift | Not listed: Taylor Swift, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Not listed: Taylor Swift, Dec 20 episode | Settled no: Taylor Swift, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Wicked5+ times | Not listed: Wicked 5+ times, Dec 19 ’25 episode | Settled no: Wicked 5+ times, Dec 20 episode | Not listed: Wicked 5+ times, Dec 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 3Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Ariana Grande say during Saturday Night Live? | no transcript | 10 | 2 yes · 8 no | – |
| Dec 20, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Ariana Grande say during Saturday Night Live on December 20? | no transcript | 15 | 1 yes · 14 no | – |
| Dec 19, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Ariana Grande say during Late Night with Seth Meyers? | no transcript | 11 | 2 yes · 9 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Ariana Grande: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/ariana-grande (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/ariana-grande · words: /api/v1/history?entity=ariana-grande · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP