Will Ulta say “Tariff”?

Ulta did not say “Tariff” on its Aug 27, 2026 call (FY27 Q2); it said it on 4 of its last 8 calls: 0, 1, 2, 1, 4, 0, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Ulta said “Tariff” on 1 of 4 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (25%), most recently on Dec 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=4, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.

40%from settlement history blended with transcripts · n=4counts: company speakers + operator
Last 10
1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
company speakers + operator
Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Ulta

Tariff

Probability
40% · n=4
Settled
1/4 (25%)
Last calls
said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: company speakers + operator

FY27 Q2 earnings call, Aug 27, 2026 · not said

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FY27 Q1 earnings call, Jun 2, 2026 · not said

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FY25 Q4 earnings call, Mar 12, 2026 · not said

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FY25 Q3 earnings call, Dec 4, 2025 · said 4 times (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator

4 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.

Kecia SteelmancompanypreparedIn transcript

…sales declines in personal styling tools, which continues to navigate pressures from tariff-related price increases. From a brand perspective, major new prestige launches from Moroccan…

Chris LialioscompanypreparedIn transcript

…many of our brand partners continue to be cautious about passing through tariff-related price changes, we saw more brand-driven price increases in Q3 as compared…

Every match in the transcript

FY25 Q2 earnings call, Aug 28, 2025 · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)

1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).

Kecia L. SteelmancompanypreparedIn transcript

…their day-to-day spending and are watchful of pricing trends in response to tariffs. At the same time, beauty enthusiasts tell us that they're prioritizing their…

FY25 Q1 earnings call, May 29, 2025 · said 2 times (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)

2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.

Kecia SteelmancompanypreparedIn transcript

…in close partnership with our brands to mitigate potential impacts of higher tariffs. In March, I shared our Ulta Beauty, Inc. unleashed plan, which is…

Paula OyibocompanypreparedIn transcript

…are thinking about the potential impact on our business from the evolving tariff and global trade landscape. For context, in fiscal 2024, only about 1%…

Every match in the transcript

FY24 Q4 earnings call, Mar 13, 2025 · said 1 time (counts)

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FY24 Q3 earnings call, Dec 5, 2024 · not said

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Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Aug 27, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Jun 2, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Mar 12, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Dec 4, 2025TariffPolymarketYes6
Dec 4, 2025TariffKalshiYes4

Questions

How many times did Ulta say “Tariff” on its last earnings call?
Ulta did not say “Tariff” on its Aug 27, 2026 call (FY27 Q2); it said it on 4 of its last 8 calls: 0, 1, 2, 1, 4, 0, 0, 0 times.
How often does Ulta say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Ulta said “Tariff” on 1 of 4 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (25%), most recently on Dec 4, 2025.
What is the probability Ulta says “Tariff” next time?
40%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.

Cite parrot.markets, “Ulta: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/ULTA/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=ulta&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=ulta&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP