Will AAR say “Iran / Middle East”?
AAR did not say “Iran / Middle East” on its Sep 29, 2026 call (FY27 Q1); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, AAR did not say “Iran / Middle East” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 25% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 20¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
AAR
Iran / Middle East
- Probability
- 25% · n=1
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last calls
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…about the current environment. We are closely monitoring the events in the Middle East that have been in constant contact with our customers. And many…
Quick question. I know it's still early in the war in Iran. How long does this potentially have to drag on before it starts maybe…
Not counted under the usual rule (company speakers + operator); this word was not listed here.
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…an authorized service center to support their hydraulic components across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. This is a great example of the critical role…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Iran / Middle East |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How many times did AAR say “Iran / Middle East” on its last earnings call?
- AAR did not say “Iran / Middle East” on its Sep 29, 2026 call (FY27 Q1); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 times.
- How often does AAR say “Iran / Middle East”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, AAR did not say “Iran / Middle East” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 29, 2026.
- What is the probability AAR says “Iran / Middle East” next time?
- 25%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “AAR: ‘Iran / Middle East’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/AIR/words/iran-or-middle-east (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=aar&word=iran%20%2F%20middle%20east · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=aar&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP