King Charles III: Speech, May 13, 2026
Kalshi What will King Charles III say during the State Opening of Parliament?
Polymarket What will King Charles say during State Opening?
Markets
36 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATO | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Common / Commons | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defense | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Education | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Government 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Health | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| House / Housing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NHS / National Health Service | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Climate | Yes | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Queen / Mother | No | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mother | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| War | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Brexit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Controversial | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defeat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Failure | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Frankly | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gas | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Parliament 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Six Seven | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starmer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Keir / Starmer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Muslim / Islam | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palace | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-king-charles-say-during-state-opening · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP