Kamala Harris: Speech, Nov 6, 2024
Polymarket What will Kamala say in concession speech?
Markets
18 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doug | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank you 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Victory | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Won/Win | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joy/Joyful | Yes | 15%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Promise of America | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| All/Every American(s) | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Believe in Freedom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| It's not over | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia/Russian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vote 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 9%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-kamala-say-in-speech-after-election-is-called · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP