Kamala Harris: Episode, Sep 19, 2024
Polymarket What will Kamala say during Oprah live stream?
Markets
17 words · 2 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abortion | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Project 2025 | No | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Black 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| KKK | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Latina | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mark Robinson | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Michelle | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nazi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Racist | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JD Vance | No | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Joy | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| DEI | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Convicted Felon | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Liar | No | 19%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 15%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-kamala-say-during-oprah-live-stream · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP