Hot Ones: Episode, Jul 23, 2026
Polymarket What will Jon Bernthal or Tom Holland say on Hot Ones?
Markets
21 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brother | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fuck / Fucking 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marvel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Milk 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Morocco | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Odyssey | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Punisher | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spider / Spider-man 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Brother / Mate 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grey / Gray | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hollywood | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ice Cream | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pitbull | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soccer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Timothy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uncharted | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wedding | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Cup | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zendaya | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scoville | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-jon-bernthal-or-tom-holland-say-on-hot-ones-20260721145535497 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP