Lemonade Stand: Episode, Jun 3, 2026

By Jun 3EpisodeHistory onlyLemonade Stand

Updated

Markets

7 words · 2 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Oil / Gas Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Housing / House Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Aggregate No–new new word, no probability yet–
Imperialism No–new new word, no probability yet–
Rent No–new new word, no probability yet–
SpaceX No–new new word, no probability yet–
T1 / Trump mobile / Trump phone No–new new word, no probability yet–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-lemonade-stand-podcast-june-3 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP