All-In Podcast: Episode, Jan 16, 2026

By Jan 16EpisodeHistory onlyAll-In Podcast

Updated

Markets

15 words · 9 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Data Center Yes67%n=2 from settlement history–
Audit Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Denmark Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Microsoft Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Sanders Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Shah Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Ski Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Too late Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Disgraziad Yes44%n=3 from settlement history–
Disgraceful No–new new word, no probability yet–
Elon No–new new word, no probability yet–
Eric Adams No–new new word, no probability yet–
Independence No–new new word, no probability yet–
MAGA No–new new word, no probability yet–
Zelensky No–new new word, no probability yet–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-292 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP