The Joe Rogan Experience: Episode, Apr 5, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (April 5)
Markets
22 words · 2 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crazy 15+ times | Yes | 70%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| People 100+ times | No | 70%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dude 10+ times | No | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fuck / Fucking 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Military | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Algorithm | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chocolate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cold Plunge | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crack / Cocaine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insurance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Invasion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Matrix | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Simulation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| The Matrix | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UFC / Dana White | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War / Conflict | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sauna | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-first-joe-rogan-experience-episode-of-the-week-april-5 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP