Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Episode, Oct 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Zelenskyy say during Meet the Press?
Markets
17 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin | Yes | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Oil / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sanction / Tariff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Missile | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Starlink | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| North Korea | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fund / Funding | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXZELENSKYYMENTION-26OCT18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP